Box Office Results: Crossed the $1 billion mark

[warhorse]

Several of the box office websites (read: Box Office Mojo) seem to argue that DOTM didn't do as well as ROTF in the US so far because people didn't think ROTF was very good. I honestly am not a fan of BOM because they seem to add commentary to what should really be straight forward stats, and (I think) for a while changed the budget of ROTF to skew how much profit it made. (This is a total conspiracy theory on my part, I could be smoking crack.)

But does that original DOTM argument make sense? I'm asking honestly because perhaps I'm missing something here.

ROTF made $836+ million dollars, so obviously somebody though it was good. It also made $217+ million in home media sales, which I think is the best indication of whether people like a movie, because they spent their hard earned dollar to own it. That made it first in sales revenue for 2009, second in units sold to Twilight, and actually topped Avatar in both (units sold by a slim margin, sales revenue by almost $35 million!); I know people really like to compare it to Avatar.

So while ROTF was a critical failure, it wasn't an audience failure, or a home media failure.

So what do you attribute the lower box office to? The economy? The bloom off the rose of 3D? Something else?

Or do you think that people honestly didn't go see DOTM because critics thought ROTF sucked?

Ed Fuego

First off, you are right about BOM and their professionalism. I go to read an article, and it already spoiled one of the story arcs, and then claims it wasn't that interesting of a spoiler. They are really being snarky and condescending in their tones IMHO.

As for people not seeing it in massive numbers. Look at the overall picture. Every movie is underperforming to some degree this year. The United States is in a serious recession, and it looks like it will take some time to climb out of it. People just don't have the money they did back in 2008.

The critics panning it don't mean squat. Critics panned The Hangover 2, and look how massive it did, and the critics praised Super 8, and look how unmassive it did. Critics themselves are simply not a factor.

The biggest complaints I hear for reasons people don't want to see the film in neck of the woods, #1, is that they don't like how the Transformers looked all the way back from the first movie. #2, lot of people like Megan Fox, and they skipped this one because she's no in it. #3 the sexual tone and nature turns alot of people off. I know, it's a double edge sword with sex is a no no, but violence and carnage is OK, but it's an undeniable fact.

[Sillypuddy]

2nd weekend prediction...

50-60% drop: $45 million- this will put it around the 240-250 range

mid week addition- 16 million

3rd weekend (potter opens): 60% drop: $19 million

...obviously, this is using standard weekend drop-offs.... still say between 315-335million domestically...

[PSofosNextGen]

2nd weekend prediction...

50-60% drop: $45 million- this will put it around the 240-250 range

mid week addition- 16 million

3rd weekend (potter opens): 60% drop: $19 million

...obviously, this is using standard weekend drop-offs.... still say between 315-335million domestically...

I will said it a million of times : Min $350 !

[Sillypuddy]

LA Times released an article this morning stating Paramount said DOTM did 181.2 million through today (obviously estimated) which means today's Box office should be around the 19-20 million range...

still fits in where I think it will finish....

http://search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0oGd...nsformers.html

Happy 4th everybody!!

[PSofosNextGen]

These are awesome results and doesn't included the real global total ! Just an early estimation ! Better than TF2 ?

[alexsm]

LA Times released an article this morning stating Paramount said DOTM did 181.2 million through today (obviously estimated) which means today's Box office should be around the 19-20 million range...

still fits in where I think it will finish....

http://search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0oGd...nsformers.html

Happy 4th everybody!!

Box Office Mojo says 19Millions for today, which is a 37% drop from sunday. I don't know how exactly the 4th July affects this, but is around a 15% better than ROTF and the first Transformers.

If the next three days it holds around 18M, 15M, 15M it may end up surpassing ROTF in the full run.

[PSofosNextGen]

Box Office Mojo says 19Millions for today, which is a 37% drop from sunday. I don't know how exactly the 4th July affects this, but is around a 15% better than ROTF and the first Transformers.

If the next three days it holds around 18M, 15M, 15M it may end up surpassing ROTF in the full run.

The goal is one :
Transformers 3 : Yearly 2011 and if domestically tops HP will be the real king at last as it is deserved !
But worldwide numbers are more interesting this time ... I want both

[alexsm]

Some statistics done in two minutes about IMDB votes.

Cutting by hand most of 1s and 10s to make the votes adjust more or less a Gaussian distribution (because Gaussians always tell the truth), trying to avoid most of the "fanboy" voting, the "hater" voting and the studio voting to make the rating go up or down, the result is that the votes are distributed more or less like:



Of course this eliminates some (sometimes a lot) of valid 1s and 10s, and it's too soon for DOTM (low number of votes, like 20% of votes not accounted), but we can see that the ratings are very similar to the first Transformers.

Also we can see that ROTF has a solid amount of votes around 6,7 and 8 out of 10 which is quite good, even though it also has more than its sisters in the lower region.

I'll see it again when DOTM gets around 50.000 votes.

[PSofosNextGen]

Some statistics done in two minutes about IMDB votes.

Cutting by hand most of 1s and 10s to make the votes adjust more or less a Gaussian distribution (because Gaussians always tell the truth), trying to avoid most of the "fanboy" voting, the "hater" voting and the studio voting to make the rating go up or down, the result is that the votes are distributed more or less like:

Of course this eliminates some (sometimes a lot) of valid 1s and 10s, and it's too soon for DOTM (low number of votes, like 20% of votes not accounted), but we can see that the ratings are very similar to the first Transformers.

Also we can see that ROTF has a solid amount of votes around 6,7 and 8 out of 10 which is quite good, even though it also has more than its sisters in the lower region.

I'll see it again when DOTM gets around 50.000 votes.

Nice try . I know the ratings before TF3 starts it's premiere but this time is different than before ! Foreing will be playing a more major role ....everything is liquid as i said before

[PSofosNextGen]

Some statistics done in two minutes about IMDB votes.

Cutting by hand most of 1s and 10s to make the votes adjust more or less a Gaussian distribution (because Gaussians always tell the truth), trying to avoid most of the "fanboy" voting, the "hater" voting and the studio voting to make the rating go up or down, the result is that the votes are distributed more or less like:

Of course this eliminates some (sometimes a lot) of valid 1s and 10s, and it's too soon for DOTM (low number of votes, like 20% of votes not accounted), but we can see that the ratings are very similar to the first Transformers.

Also we can see that ROTF has a solid amount of votes around 6,7 and 8 out of 10 which is quite good, even though it also has more than its sisters in the lower region.

I'll see it again when DOTM gets around 50.000 votes.

Nice try . I know the ratings before TF3 starts it's premiere but this time is different than before !
Foreign numbers will be playing a more major role this time and this might help domestic numbers as well .... everything is in liquid state as i said before

[Sillypuddy]

Box Office Mojo says 19Millions for today, which is a 37% drop from sunday. I don't know how exactly the 4th July affects this, but is around a 15% better than ROTF and the first Transformers.

If the next three days it holds around 18M, 15M, 15M it may end up surpassing ROTF in the full run.

No movie entering its second week holds with numbers like that. It would make serious news if that were the case!!!

I think a more realistic number is Tues: 9M, Wed:8M,Thur:9M.... still impressive...

[PSofosNextGen]

No movie entering its second week holds with numbers like that. It would make serious news if that were the case!!!

I think a more realistic number is Tues: 9M, Wed:8M,Thur:9M.... still impressive...

Box Office mojo changed the weekend numbers at : $116.000.000 5 minutes ago still strange or a typing mistake ?? check it !

[alexsm]

No movie entering its second week holds with numbers like that. It would make serious news if that were the case!!!

I think a more realistic number is Tues: 9M, Wed:8M,Thur:9M.... still impressive...

Well, ROTF made 13,10 and 11 Millions, with a 15 Millions Monday.

On the other hand, for now DOTM is following the War of the Worlds pattern very close, which would mean (more or less):

Tuesday: 13M
Wednesday: 10M
Thursday: 9M
Friday: 15M
Saturday: 18M
Sunday: 12M

[PSofosNextGen]

Well, ROTF made 13,10 and 11 Millions, with a 15 Millions Monday.

On the other hand, for now DOTM is following the War of the Worlds pattern very close, which would mean (more or less):

Tuesday: 13M
Wednesday: 10M
Thursday: 9M
Friday: 15M
Saturday: 18M
Sunday: 12M

War of the worlds pattern ?

You are made a grave mistake here . Checked again in few days though

[alexsm]

War of the worlds pattern ?

You are made a grave mistake here . Checked again in few days though

War of the worlds had (more or less):

Wednesday -
Thursday (-30%)
Friday (+50%)
Saturday (+5%)
Sunday (-15%)
Monday (-35%)

And DOTM, for now, has (more or less):

Wednesday -
Thursday (-40%)
Friday (+50%)
Saturday (+5%)
Sunday (-15%)
Monday (-35%)

Not exactly (first day fails to fit), but pretty close

[Albershide]

Monday update.

Domestic:
Tuesday - $5.5M
Wednesday - $37.8M
Thursday - $21.5M
Friday - $32.9M
Saturday - $34.5M
Sunday - $29.9M
Monday - $18.9M

Total gross for 6 days - $181M


International:

Total gross for 6 days - $244M (according to Comingsoon.net, Monday included)


WORLDWIDE - $425M in just 6 days!!!

[Albershide]

Well obviously there's a mistake at Comingsoon's calculations. They say that domestically the gross is $181M, internationally it's $244M and worldwide $416M. But the sum is $425M. So we have to wait for BOM to update their page with the new international gross through Monday.

[Sillypuddy]

Well, ROTF made 13,10 and 11 Millions, with a 15 Millions Monday.

On the other hand, for now DOTM is following the War of the Worlds pattern very close, which would mean (more or less):

Tuesday: 13M
Wednesday: 10M
Thursday: 9M
Friday: 15M
Saturday: 18M
Sunday: 12M

True, but that was a full 2D release.... trends show a 3D drop off after the opening weekend. I am all for it doing those kind of numbers....just highly unlikely IMO....

EW.com has an intresting article about whether TF#'s 3D grosses prove 3D is a viable medium or is it just a blip on the radar for more lackluster returns for future releases. The more I think about it, as awesome as a few of the visuals were....I likeed the film better in 2D....noticed a hell of a lot more....

[Roll Out]

No movie entering its second week holds with numbers like that. It would make serious news if that were the case!!!

I think a more realistic number is Tues: 9M, Wed:8M,Thur:9M.... still impressive...

Monday is a holiday...that's why it's so high.
Hopefully the final numbers will be higher.

I suspect that Tuesday will have a fairly significant drop (maybe $8m-$9m).
But...I've been wrong before, like when I expected Monday to be about 1/2 of the current estimates.

[I Fight Giant Robots]

Dark of the Moon is too good to put numbers on it or to compare it to anything. :borat
but im sure its going to continue to be a huge success. So stop worrying guys. Dont worry about a thing...

[Roll Out]

Well...after less than a week, it's made back 2x it's production budget.
I don't think Paramount is too upset by that.

[ChldsPlay]

Monday is a holiday...that's why it's so high.
Hopefully the final numbers will be higher.

I suspect that Tuesday will have a fairly significant drop (maybe $8m-$9m).
But...I've been wrong before, like when I expected Monday to be about 1/2 of the current estimates.

It's a holiday, so it will be higher than a normal Monday, but being a holiday can also hurt B.O. so, it's overall effect won't be that large. Some more people may go because they don't have to work, but a lot of people are out with their families etc. and won't go to movies either.

[Roll Out]

It's a holiday, so it will be higher than a normal Monday, but being a holiday can also hurt B.O. so, it's overall effect won't be that large. Some more people may go because they don't have to work, but a lot of people are out with their families etc. and won't go to movies either.

I know Monday is higher because of the holiday.
I just meant for everyone not to get their hopes up for huge weekdays, just because of the huge Monday.

[Albershide]

Just to correct my previous post.

Domestic:
Tuesday - $5.5M
Wednesday - $37.8M
Thursday - $21.5M
Friday - $32.9M
Saturday - $34.5M
Sunday - $29.9M
Monday - $18.9M

Total gross for 6 days - $181M


International:

Total gross for 6 days - $235M (according to Comingsoon.net, Monday included)


WORLDWIDE - $416M in just 6 days!!!

[Flyingheart]