A few things to set your perspective straight:
The total sales gap between HD DVD and BD, across all markets since inception is less than 2M disks or so. That includes ALL markets, ALL studios and since inception!
For some perspective. A mediocre DVD release sells well over 2M disks in the US alone in 1 week!
So, first of all let's remember that the biggest FUD being thrown around is that BD sales are 'killing' HD DVD or whatever. Ratios are often used to hide the 'real' difference in sales units.
Next, the BDA has been very aggressive in pricing software sales. A large portion of their sales are attributable to offers like buy-one-get-one type deals that they are running on a continuous basis. So, in revenue terms, it is likely that the actual gap is even smaller than the unit sales.
Next, consider that HD DVD can be replicated on existing DVD lines, while BD requires a completely new infrastructure. Hence, given the fact that Picture quality and audio quality are the same and the sales volume as we have seen are also very close, why would anyone invest in a new BD infrastructure? It does not make business sense and over time this will become even more self evident.
Blu Ray in the end is a format for the PS3, it will go the way of UMD.
As far as Toshiba pricing themselves out of the market, let me just remind you that this is a free market. Toshiba sells more standalones than the rest of the BDA combined. Plus, between the 4 Toshiba models now available there is more diversity in price and features than ALL the BDA standalone players.
HD DVD will win because it is a better implemenation for HDM overall. Less complex, more economical and less expensive. There is only so many $billions that Sony and Panasonic will pour into BDA to prop up this sinking ship.
Remember again, the key measurement is not sales ratios, but sales volume and revenue. The sales gap between the 2 formats is less than 1 weeks worth of DVD sales of 1 title! At these volumes would you rather produce HD DVDs from your existing DVD lines or invest $billions in a new technology that is almost certain to be a niche product, tied to a single game console!
The reason we have not seen much progress in BD hardware over the last 18 months is precisely because no one wants to invest in this losing proposition.
BD = UMD

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