Discuss....
Thanks Nelson....wasn't sure where to post my thoughts, so I jumped in there.
It really really sucks that HD is only taking off here in America, whereas Blu ray is taking off in Europe. I don't understand the logic in that at all.![]()
Fear not. As far as HD-DVD is concerned, you need look only to the last most recent quarterly NPD standalone sales figures, which showed HD-DVD with a huge 53% to 44% lead and, separately, with a 69% sales lead in Europe. And what do you think the HD-DVD equivalent figures will be for THIS quarter ending this month, which will include the 90,000-plus HD-DVD one-day player sale? Universal, Paramount and Warners have all said they discount GAME machine sales and do not want to tie their financial fortunes to them. Europeans are no less price conscious than are Americans, and it is just a matter of time that the intrinsic cost advantages of the HD-DVD format will provide the same result over the pond as here. All together now, SAY BYE-BYE TO BLU-RAY!
Cut the crap - Warner have said no such thing. Their #1 title is "300" on Blu-ray and it's cracked 250,000 copies - the HD DVD version is not even close. Dan Silverberg attributed the strong sales of "300" to Blu-ray playback in the PlayStation 3 and he's the Vice President of HD Media Development for Warner. So either you're lying, or he is.
Someone seems to be a little misinformed, Blu-ray is taking off everywhere.
Software sales are what the studios look at to see who's winning and where the sales are they will go - the hardware will follow the software.
Blu-ray disc sales vs. HD DVD sales
USA - 2:1
Europe - 3:1
Australia - 5.6:1
Japan 9:1
The only place in the world where HD DVD has any legs at all is in North America, where it has not won a single week's sales all entire year. That's right, Blu-ray has beated HD DVD every week of the year in software sales.
Hardware numbers:
North America
HD DVD - 750,000 (Standalones + 360 add-ons)
Blu-ray - 2,700,000 (Standalones + PlayStation 3)
Say bye-bye to HD DVD - by January 2009 the better format will prevail. More bandwidth, more capacity, more studio support, more big name director support (Bay, Spielberg), more CE support.
The only reason HD DVD standalone prices are so low is because Toshiba is desperate - unfortunately 500,000 standalones amounts to squat, because HD DVD is still losing every week. Black Friday, the biggest shopping day in America - Blu-ray won the week with 72.6% of the disc units moved, HD DVD had only 27.4% - despite selling 90,000 cheap players two weeks before. I guess a lot of people were upgrading their 360 add-on units, because they're handicapped in the audio front being limited to DVD-quality audio.
Toshiba has priced out all other manufacturers from HD DVD standalone hardware. No-one else will make one! There's no money in it.
Blu-ray is going to win this war and anyone that tries to convince you differently has an agenda and quite possibly works for Microsoft. There is no future for high definition media as long as there are two formats around.
People have been lied to by the HD DVD camp so much - that Blu-ray would never have 50GB discs (65.07% of releases in 2007 have been on 50GB discs) that Blu-ray would only ever use MPEG-2 (76.53% of releases in 2007 have either been AVC/MPEG-4 or VC-1) and I think you should be tired of being lied to. I am. I went Blu in November 2006 and I have not looked back since. It is far more consistent for audio and has a much more promising future than HD DUD.
Last edited by dobyblue; 12-04-2007 at 05:25 PM.
A few things to set your perspective straight:
The total sales gap between HD DVD and BD, across all markets since inception is less than 2M disks or so. That includes ALL markets, ALL studios and since inception!
For some perspective. A mediocre DVD release sells well over 2M disks in the US alone in 1 week!
So, first of all let's remember that the biggest FUD being thrown around is that BD sales are 'killing' HD DVD or whatever. Ratios are often used to hide the 'real' difference in sales units.
Next, the BDA has been very aggressive in pricing software sales. A large portion of their sales are attributable to offers like buy-one-get-one type deals that they are running on a continuous basis. So, in revenue terms, it is likely that the actual gap is even smaller than the unit sales.
Next, consider that HD DVD can be replicated on existing DVD lines, while BD requires a completely new infrastructure. Hence, given the fact that Picture quality and audio quality are the same and the sales volume as we have seen are also very close, why would anyone invest in a new BD infrastructure? It does not make business sense and over time this will become even more self evident.
Blu Ray in the end is a format for the PS3, it will go the way of UMD.
As far as Toshiba pricing themselves out of the market, let me just remind you that this is a free market. Toshiba sells more standalones than the rest of the BDA combined. Plus, between the 4 Toshiba models now available there is more diversity in price and features than ALL the BDA standalone players.
HD DVD will win because it is a better implemenation for HDM overall. Less complex, more economical and less expensive. There is only so many $billions that Sony and Panasonic will pour into BDA to prop up this sinking ship.
Remember again, the key measurement is not sales ratios, but sales volume and revenue. The sales gap between the 2 formats is less than 1 weeks worth of DVD sales of 1 title! At these volumes would you rather produce HD DVDs from your existing DVD lines or invest $billions in a new technology that is almost certain to be a niche product, tied to a single game console!
The reason we have not seen much progress in BD hardware over the last 18 months is precisely because no one wants to invest in this losing proposition.
BD = UMD![]()
Man another drunk posting...Way to go Stinger.. Are you one of those people that drunk calls in the middle of the night as well! JK!! You bring up some good points.... but....
Lets see, Sony was the only company backing UMD and HD-DVD is the only one backing HD-DVD via a hardware manufacture that is... Michael Bay is right on MS being involved. If it wasn't for Microsoft helping hold Toshiba pants up this war would be over with. Toshiba has a lot to loose and that is royalties on DVD, so there not giving up the sinking ship just yet. Also you must be delusional if you think all those manufacturers on the Blu-Ray side investing in all that hardware on some thing that is going to fail. The software sales speak for themselves, you guys have lost every Nielsen rankings since Blu-Rays been on board. Yeah I am sure this means nothing unless it was flip-flopped then it would be good information that you would use. Keep on
throwing those weak left jabs, and expect a big right hook that you won't see coming.
Week Ending Blu-Ray HD-DVD
11/11 65% 35%
11/04 71% 29%
10/28 55% 45%
10/21 51% 49%
10/14 71% 29%
10/07 68% 32%
09/30 54% 46%
09/23 63% 37%
09/16 61% 39%
09/09 60% 40%
09/02 56% 44%
08/26 68% 32%
08/19 71% 29%
08/12 66% 34%
08/05 62% 38%
07/29 66% 34%
07/22 74% 26%
07/15 61% 39%
07/08 66% 34%
07/01 65% 35%
06/24 70% 30%
06/17 64% 36%
06/10 66% 34%
06/03 61% 39%
05/27 69% 31%
05/20 58% 42%
05/13 62% 38%
05/06 60% 40%
04/29 71% 29%
04/22 52% 48%
04/15 61% 39%
04/08 62.4%37.6%
These are the Nielsen numbers... And they are important to what
goes on with studios and TV shows...
__________________
Nielsen VideoScan I will try to find the link.... Some one on YouTube put this up... LOL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlOGSl13O1k
I guess my point is we can bitch about this all we want, only time will tell, we call toss links up and try to prove or disprove what is going on, I just want my HD. I own both formats but I think(my opinion) of course that Blu-Ray is
a better format.
Last edited by Gman; 12-06-2007 at 01:05 PM.
[quote=dobyblue;5990]
Blu-ray disc sales vs. HD DVD sales
USA - 2:1
Europe - 3:1
Australia - 5.6:1
Japan 9:1
Say bye-bye to HD DVD - by January 2009 the better format will prevail. More bandwidth, more capacity, more studio support, more big name director support (Bay, Spielberg), more CE support.
Toshiba has priced out all other manufacturers from HD DVD standalone hardware. No-one else will make one! There's no money in it.
Blu-ray is going to win this war and anyone that tries to convince you differently has an agenda and quite possibly works for Microsoft. There is no future for high definition media as long as there are two formats around.
quote]
yes, thats very true, blue ray will prevail to be the #1 dvd format.
do you think developers can keep using multiple disks to put their games on? blue ray can hold almost 2x that amount.
In the future, developers will turn probbly to blue ray, to express their movies and titles in a better way. They'lle be able to make them larger, with tons of more action, well, heres a quote from Sony Playstation 3.
"Blu-ray media, stores up to five times more data than DVDs, providing a larger canvas for unbelievable graphics and unprecedented interaction; Blu-ray drive also plays Blu-ray movies for a high-definition experience with your favorite films
---
Why is Blu-ray Disc important to gaming?
With Blu-ray Disc, the PLAYSTATION 3 system offers game developers unprecedented power to express their creativity and a larger canvas to create a level of interaction, sophistication, and reality that has never existed in gaming. As a result, consumers can experience a whole new generation of high-definition gaming."
This mite not convince some of you, and the downfall of this is that it costs alot more money to put titles on blue ray, 1 reason is that its newer, so obviously it could cost more than hd dvd. and Technlology only gets better, even though its harder to put movies/games on it, it wont be as hard in the future.
And is it cuse of the technology the blu ray has? it can read with a redlazerjet from the ps3(something like that) Yet the ps3 has the potential to go to 4d graphics, *with* the use of blu-ray. (yes, 4d graphics exist, type in ps3productions on youtube to get some info on that, part 2, im not gonna explain it, takes too long)
Blu ray will be the best format of choice in the future, do you really think that hd dvd is better? blu ray is a huge deal, i know 50gb of space is a @#$% load of memory, im sure no game title/movie will use that max amount for a while. but if you think about it, any maxed out blue ray title vs hd dvd, blu ray wil win. im sorda getting of topic here...
I just dont think too many developers will be making titles on hd-dvd for another 5 or so years, they'lle need more and more space to put their titles on in the future, thats how it is.
People will buy more and more blu ray players (if they dont have a ps3) in the future. They can have both players to get it all over with.
I just think that blu ray will go further than hd-dvd, you have to think deeply on who will turn to what, and why.
(and i got a feeling there are some people that work for Microsoft, and are getting hired to support hd-dvd, and shut down blu ray, on the forums, and definently all over the internet)
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That is great stuff. The redlazerjet in the PS3 is incredibly cool because it supports 4d. Do you need special glasses for 4d? I've also heard that the PS3 not only let's you watch movies from the past, but movies from the future that haven't even been shot yet. It really is a modern wonder.![]()
Sorry, but.. are you either a Microsoft or Toshiba employee, perhaps ?
Because current numbers are quite the opposite, you know ...
Everyone is buying Blu-Ray hardware and media right now. 90% of hardware manufacturers worldwide are releasing Blu-Ray devices, while Toshiba is practically all alone releasing its own products.
The Sony Playstation3 is gaining momentum and a huge boost is expected in the next few weeks for the holidays... and almost everyone is using the PS3 as a Blu-Ray player, despite some HD-DVD supporters telling the opposite.
I loved Transformers and I bought a XBox360 HD-DVD player for my HTPC just for that but I'm going to buy a PS3 now as well and I will mainly buy Blu-Ray titles, hoping that once the format war will be over there will be movies released on upcoming 6-layer 200GB Blu-Ray discs, which are highly likely to be readable by the majority of current players thru firmware updates.
And what Mr.Bay said is just the truth. Bill Gates wants to estabilish a monopoly on movies distribution and sales thru Microsoft own online systems along with Microsoft DRM schemes.
Last edited by wingzero; 12-04-2007 at 05:45 PM.
The funny thing is they can try but it will never get market acceptance unless its dirt cheap meaning less than a dollar a rental. I would hope someone would really see the reason why microsoft is in the war heavily.
It is for the most obvious reason of all.
To beat the Sony PS3
All other objectives come much later down the road I assure you. If Blu Ray were to win out that would be a huge boon to the PS3 as it would be the player of choice and then hence Sony has a backdoor back into the console market in which they currently sit 4th behind wii 360 and ps2.
I think the speculation they are in it to kill both formats is just over hyped paranoia.
its funny everyone dissing HD DVD in fav of Blu-Ray, why? both formats use the same compression in both audio and video, both are at :-
1920 x 1080 (HDTV)
AVC MPEG-4, VC-1, MPEG-2
Dolby Digital Plus, DTS, Dolby Digital, DTS-HD, DTS-HD Master Audio (lossless), Dolby TrueHD (lossless)
Advanced Access Content System (AACS) 128-bit (BD+, ROM Mark=BD Only)
Both Use Blue lasers in their drives.
the only differences are the Maximum data transfer rate for movie playback (Megabits per second) Which HD DVD is = 36mbps and Blu-Ray is 54mbps and the other is the size of the discs themselves.
even if Microsoft loose the format war, they'll still be making money from Blu-Ray as sony uses Microsoft VC-1 (Based on Windows Media Video 9) compression for some of their Blu-Ray Movies.
Yes Michael Bay wanted Transformers to be release on Blu-Ray and HD DVD as he wanted it to be on the best formats possible, but obviously this was prohibited due to it been Paramount, but Michael Bay also saw 300 on HD DVD and relised and he said "IT ROCKS" taken from the site http://www.michaelbay.com/blog/files...ay-HD-DVD.html
Last edited by demon148; 12-04-2007 at 07:02 PM. Reason: Need to Add More
Really there isn't much difference between the formats to choose either one as superior to the other. And for me the only reason I like HD-DVD more is because it doesn't cost as much.
If Blu-Ray doesn't lower their prices to the level of HD-DVD then they'll still be in a lot of competition. Plus, PS3 has a big part of Blu-Ray sales, but really a lot of PS3 owners don't use it for Blu-Ray, in fact in the last survey it was found that only 40% of PS3 owners know that it can play Blu-Ray movies, and only about half of them had even played a Blu-Ray movie in their PS3. Also, only about 50% of Ps3 owners even know that it can play in HD. The PS3 is important for Blu-Ray sales, but HD-DVD is doing quite well for people who are actually buying HD-DVD on purpose. And really, Sony has a big stake in this since the failure of either the PS3 or Blu-Ray could spell doom for the other.
Although really, there things could change a lot for each format depending on how things go with the release of Lord of the Rings, Star Wars, and Indiana Jones.
For me I would buy a Blu-Ray player if any of those were Blu-Ray exclusives. But I don't think it will be for a while because they are pretty much waiting to see which format comes out on top before they release a their movies in an HD format which will be a while from happening.
Microsoft doesn't really care about the XBox360. The XBox has been a dead duck investment since its inception, Microsoft lost billions on it for years. They killed the original XBox console with no care for their own customers, while Sony keeps pushing the now ancient PS2 and for years pushed the PS1 despite the release of the PS3. The XBox360 has been plagued by hardware defects and low quality manufacturing issues with an a pretty high failure rate, far higher than the competing Nintendo and Sony consoles.
The XBox360 is just a way to distract Sony management and other competitors from Bill Gates true objectives, although Microsoft surely would enjoy to see Sony at failure and the PS3 to fail, but that it's not going to happen, fortunately for everyone excluding Gates.
Mr.Bay analysis is correct but Bill Gates masterplan is even more complex and ambitious. Judging from Microsoft moves so far I'd say that what Gates wants to achieve probably includes using HD-DVD and VC-1 standard as trojan horses along with the whole DRM stuff and download services to gain control over one or two major studios... Microsoft has been trying to build up its own television network and to produce its own movies (like the Halo movie..).. So, what they want to achieve is to be able to buy a couple of studios at a cheap price up to the point that they could achieve that even if Sony wins the format war with Blu-Ray .. Bill Gates might easily decide to buy Universal thanks to his current deals with Toshiba and merge it into the Microsoft group.. and he might try to buy Paramount (buying Dreamworks it's highly unlikely since Mr.Spielberg is not going to let that happen I bet, although Bill Gates deep pockets can always change that with anyone and Gates knows it). Surely Gates would like to see Sony collapse sooner better than later for him and the Microsoft group, so that he could then start "helping" Sony like he did "help" Apple... which means ending up controlling the group or a large part of it and its management. That would ensure Gates a large control on both Hollywood, tv networks, the news and so on... Bill Gates wants to expand Microsoft even further because he knows that Sony is a problem for his own goals in the tv networks and movie production sectors and because Gates wants to divide and conquer in order to control everyone and create a monopoly, which is exactly what he has done with Microsoft.
This is simply unbelievable. I can't believe Michael Bay would make such very serious accusations. I don't intend to lecture you Mr. Bay, but that statement you made is downright offensive. There aren't many times in my life where I've looked at a random statement on the internet or in a paper and been legitimately hurt by the thought someone would go so far. I have the utmost respect for you Mike as a person and as a man in profession.
Then there is the uninformed and ignorant people that at the first opportunity that presents itself smear Bill Gate's name.
Are you guys so cold that any and anything relating to Microsoft you just go on the offensive and attack Bill Gates despite the fact that I've he has long since removed himself from a day to day role at Microsoft where he would in any shape or form be involved with many of the business decisions? He doesn't actively preside over any business matters involving the HD-DVD and Blu-Ray Formats nor is he even actively involved in many of the things people like to attack Microsoft for. Is attacking Bill Gates just the popular thing to do whenever somebody says terrible things about Microsoft as a company?
Before I got sidetracked I must say Mr. Bay I understood your original statement regarding this format war and then I understood the ones that followed, but I just don't know what to think of this latest one. Microsoft absolutely does not want both formats to fail. Microsoft has simply made a choice on which one they feel is better for the consumer. It is easy to look at which format has the most movie sales and judge superiority based on that fact alone, but that isn't the way to look at things. Is it too much to fathom that Microsoft legitimately has faith in the HD-DVD format and that is why they are supporting it? Is Sony or any other company the victim of such attacks because they are stubborn enough to believe in their format so much that they are willing to do whatever to see it succeed?
HD-DVD has been delivering an experience that has been on equal footing with Blu Ray every step of the way in terms of picture quality. If you take into consideration that the HD-DVD format has easily been the better of the 2 formats concerning the all around user experience, thanks in no small part to the interactivity features, then I can't see why anyone would jump to say Blu Ray is superior.
Yes Blu Ray has better movie sales because of the Playstation 3, which we all knew was bound to end up selling better than these standalone players, but it can't be said with any certainty that all these PS3 owners purchased a PS3 with Blu Ray movies as their main focal point. Were it not for the Playstation 3 this ridiculous format war would be more in favor of the format that is treating the customers right and is more affordable for the consumer. Early Blu Ray standalone adopters have been left out in the cold and wont be able to enjoy the same experiences as newer standalone blu ray standalone adopters because early Blu Ray players do not support all the same features. Yes Mr. Bay I know you feel strongly that your movie Transformers would have sold better on Blu Ray and I'm not here to disagree I know it would've sold better on Blu Ray, but not every Blu Ray owner would be able to enjoy the same well rounded experience due to missing features on some blu ray players and due to the fact that many of these blu ray players can't be upgraded to support the features they would be missing out on.
Doesn't it in anyway please you to know that all HD-DVD owners that purchased the wonderful movie you directed are able to enjoy the same amazing experience? I know it probably wasn't your intention Mr. Bay, but how do you think the people that went out to purchase the movie you directed (Transformers) on HD-DVD feel reading your comments feeding this format war? It is almost as if you are in no way appreciative of the fact that these people went out to buy your movie. I know you're angry that Blu Ray owners didn't get Transformers, but there are people that put down money for an HD-DVD player to get Transformers and it's almost as if you are totally turning a blind eye to that fact. You are successfully making the people that bought your movie look and feel like they are idiots. It is nice to know the 2 copies of Transformers I purchased for HD-DVD were insignificant. One for myself and one as an early christmas gift along with an hd-dvd player from Amazon.
I don't think its proper for you to get yourself involved in this messy format war for the amusement of blu ray and hd-dvd enthusiast on both sides. You have the money Mr. Bay go ahead and purchase a Blu Ray player (if you don't have one already) and purchase an HD-DVD player and see for yourself how "superior" Blu Ray is. What you are saying ultimately translates to Blu Ray is superior because the sales are higher.
It is pretty clear the blu-ray has slaughtered this war. It is impossible to beat the format that is supported strongly by all todays top end electronic companies. And they also have the movie industry support. =)
I have both formats, and a Sony LCD, Sony Vaio with a Blu Ray burner, and honestly, they look and sound the same, to me. I was such a huge Sony supporter until recently. Blu Ray has been such a headache. I talk to Sony Style support regularly, and even have to take the computer into the store because of Blu Ray issues.
However, ZERO problems with my HD DVD. I am seriously on the verge of taking all my Sony products back or selling them. it shluld not be an isue if everything is new and Sony.
Anyway, doesn't matter, we can't control this, the retailers are pushing Blu Ray big time here in California. I hope they both lose and some 3rd format comes out.
I read about this like 2 years ago. So this guy can read too. It's not "theory" it's business common sense. Of course Microsoft wants both to fail. They want to set digital as a standard for media content. Plus, there's no way that MS could let rival Sony put out a new HD format out there and not compete against them. Don't see any MS GreenRay in the future either.
P.S. noticed some OS flaming in here. OS X 4 LIFE!!!
...windows blows.
Last edited by kill8joy; 12-05-2007 at 01:24 AM.
Does anyone out here want to challenge what I feel suits my films better in terms of look. I see every frame of my films over a hundred times before it is ever released. I know the lighting conditions I shot it and the result on the DI. I know the range. I know what the final product should look like - Blu Ray suits my films better. But that said - I don't a care about this format war because I have both formats in my screening room - I'm just filling you in on what people deep in the film industry feel ultimately is going on -
Transformers looks great even in DVD!!
I think Michael Bay is just as frustrated as all of us Blu fans. Michael Bay is the unsung hero for Blu-Ray, and I think it's great that he makes his ideas on the subject known. He seems unafraid and unrelentant. I applaud the man, and may Transformers make it's way over to the Blu side earlier than expected.
Thanks,
Michael
![]()
1) How is Blu-Ray "obviously superior"?
1a) 1080p is 1080p is 1080p
1b) Are there independant, verifiable studies that show how blue-ray is technically superior? Could you link to these studies?
2) Is there any PROOF of Microsoft making payments to studios, beyond conspiracy theories?
3) MS has just as much to lose, considering they are selling an HD-DVD player for the XBox 360. yes, Microsoft wants both formats to fail so their investment in the standard and the hardware will cost them MILLIONS. That's how they've grown so large - by purposefully losing money.
4) The only conceivable thing about blu-ray that is "superior" is it's additional layers of copy protection, which make it harder for consumers to use their purchased content how they want on the devices they want.
5) Michael Bay is a hack.
Speaking of Alcohol give me whatever Mr. Smith is drinking!!!!I think they spiked your HD-DVD Kool-Aid...
Lets see Bourne Ultimatum comes out on HD-DVD this week, and Blu-Ray group with have another BOGO free sale so you will loose another week, at least I can say your consistent with loosing most of the battles fought so far and you have a considerable head start.
CptGreedle: Very well put.....
Last edited by Gman; 12-06-2007 at 11:02 AM.
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