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Thread: Box Office

  1. #1
    Senior Member Bayhem's Avatar
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    Arrow Box Office

    Are we in for another $100 million Bay movie? Watching the trailer, checking out the reactions, and knowing how popular both Johnson and Wahlberg are I honestly wouldn't be surprised if "Pain & Gain" ends up making $100 million domestically. Yes, it's certainly not an easy job for an R-rated production in April, but if they crank up the marketing campaign (and the word-of-mouth is positive) the movie may surprise a lot of people.

    Outside the US though, I'm absolutely sure that "Pain & Gain" will be a hit. No doubt about it.

    So...my overall prediction: worldwide - around $220 million. Best case scenario. Keep in mind, we're talking about a movie with a budget of $25 million. This is not "Transformers" or "Pearl Harbor".


    Over to you, S4TE. Predict away.
    "You know why the departures and the arrivals at LAX are on separate levels? So the 30,000 heartbreakers that come here each month don't notice the 30,000 that are leaving with their hearts broken."

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    Senior Member Albershide's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by Bayhem View Post
    I honestly wouldn't be surprised if "Pain & Gain" ends up making $100 million domestically.
    Outside the US though, I'm absolutely sure that "Pain & Gain" will be a hit. No doubt about it.

    So...my overall prediction: worldwide - around $220 million.
    If you predict that P&G will be a hit outside the US you should give it more than $120 million.

    I think the movie will be a huge surprise in terms of box office results. It'll greatly exceed its $25 million budget. I think the movie will be more popular in the US than internationally mainly because of the specific story. If promoted well a Michael Bay movie with Mark Wahlberg and The Rock could do miracles. Still as you said April is a slow month for movies and Joseph Kosinski's Oblivion premieres a week before P&G. So it'll be tough. But I've seen so many people (even haters) that are anxiously expecting this movie so I'll say:

    Domestic - $160 million
    International - $ 90 million
    Worldwide - $250 million

    Which is really huge.

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    Senior Member Flyingheart's Avatar
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    Don't worry it'll be a hit.

    Everybody likes fitness right! ;D and if not there's bound to be a few funny scene(s) about stereo typical stuff where they can make fun of which the other half of the audience will appreciate and maybe the other half might not like it and ask themselves a question or two maybe i don't know but it'll be a hit i think.

    I wonder if there's a fart joke somewhere in the movie...? ;P haha guys always laugh right?! ;P haha nothing better than doing a ab workout and doing a good fart lol
    You can use that Michael ONLY YOU.
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    Senior Member Bayhem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Forecast time (boxoffice.com):


    "Pain and Gain"


    PROS:

    - The combination of Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson, Mark Wahlberg and Michael Bay provides plenty of box office star power.
    - As a result of that star power, likely to receive a relatively large marketing push for a film of its size.
    - The true size of Michael Bay's fanbase could prove to be a wild card for the better or for the worse.



    CONS:

    - Too much Johnson and Wahlberg? It will be the third film of 2013 for Johnson and second film of 2013 for Wahlberg, with more 2013 films still on the horizon for both.
    - There is likely to be a lot of overlap between the fanbases of Johnson, Wahlberg and Bay.
    - Opening in between Oblivion and Iron Man 3 will not be easy to say the least. Likely to be quite front-loaded towards opening weekend.


    - http://www.boxoffice.com/featured_st...he-big-wedding
    "You know why the departures and the arrivals at LAX are on separate levels? So the 30,000 heartbreakers that come here each month don't notice the 30,000 that are leaving with their hearts broken."

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    Senior Member BAYsplosions!'s Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    I can honestly see it being in the 200-250 worldwide range which is great considering the low budget nature of the film. Overall I can't wait for this. The combination of Bay, Walhberg, and Dwayne Johnson can do wonders at the box office.

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    Default Re: Box Office

    I'll hold on making a prediction until after it becomes clear how they intend to advertise it, how Michael and the stars promote it in interviews, and yes what kind of reviews it will get. The bottom line is that it's not an action movie or a thriller, and although they may try and play it as a black comedy, the material is inherently dark and unsettling, and you have not just anti-heroes in the lead, but outright murderers. My guess on that basis would be Looper numbers ($166 million worldwide).

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    Senior Member Bayhem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Aaaand....we're on. We're on with some good news - http://www.deadline.com/2013/04/mich...0k-late-night/
    "You know why the departures and the arrivals at LAX are on separate levels? So the 30,000 heartbreakers that come here each month don't notice the 30,000 that are leaving with their hearts broken."

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    Senior Member Albershide's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Expected box office gross for the weekend - $20 million. I expected something more like $40 million. Still it's not bad for a $26 million R rated movie. It opens here next week.

    http://www.deadline.com/2013/04/mich...0k-late-night/

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    Senior Member Bayhem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by Albershide View Post
    I expected something more like $40 million.


    That's impossible for a movie like "Pain & Gain". Even "Armageddon" couldn't crack $40 million (opening weekend).

    Considering the budget, the R rating and the fact that it's not a typical summer movie "Pain & Gain" is doing good. $20 million would be a good start. And it's certainly doing better than the previous Mark Wahlberg movie - "Broken City". That movie opened earlier this year and during it's entire theatrical run it made only $19 million. That's really, really bad for a movie with a budget of over $35 million.

    "Pain & Gain" is cheaper and it's already doing better than "Broken City". So it's all good.
    "You know why the departures and the arrivals at LAX are on separate levels? So the 30,000 heartbreakers that come here each month don't notice the 30,000 that are leaving with their hearts broken."

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    Senior Member Flyingheart's Avatar
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    Oh yeah..



    image-3511848871.jpg

    Check out this article from USA TODAY:

    'Pain & Gain' roughs up competition

    http://usat.ly/YdQ7kk
    When i Transform i release rockets with nanobot-viruses that destroys you from within... the fuel inside you will turn into acid, metal will melt instantly...
    I'm a decepticon and my name is _____ All Hail Megatron!

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    Default Re: Box Office

    I wasn't expecting 2 much, I knew it would do great for one week, be the number 1 movie. then drop off when Iron Man 3 comes out next week..

    for it's budget its doing good.. will have to see what it's up against worldwide in Aug-Sept to make an estimate on how much it will make. it's way to early to guess now.

    I think it might do 50-60mill in the US.

  12. #12
    Senior Member Albershide's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by Bayhem View Post
    That's impossible for a movie like "Pain & Gain". Even "Armageddon" couldn't crack $40 million (opening weekend).
    Well I wouldn't call it impossible. After all Wahlberg's previous R rated comedy Ted made $55 million for the weekend. So $40 million for a Michae Bay movie with such cast was surely possible.

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    Senior Member Bayhem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by Albershide View Post
    After all Wahlberg's previous R rated comedy Ted made $55 million for the weekend. So $40 million for a Michae Bay movie with such cast was surely possible.

    Yes, it is possible. But it's not possible for this particular movie.

    As for "Ted", that was a summer comedy with a huge marketing campaign and a budget of over $60 million. And the main character was a talking teddy bear. R rating or not, that alone is enough to put asses in seats. It's certainly not because of Wahlberg. If he was such a draw then "Broken City" would've been a huge hit as well.

    Bottom line: the audience for "Ted" is simply bigger than the audience for "Pain & Gain". Not to mention that we're talking about two completely different movies. And as recent history shows us R-rated comedies are usually doing better than R-rated crime movies.

    Anyway, "Pain & Gain" did a good job and it's the #1 movie right now. That's what matters. The folks at Paramount were expecting a $20 million opening weekend and that's what they got. A good start for a twisted movie like "Pain & Gain".
    "You know why the departures and the arrivals at LAX are on separate levels? So the 30,000 heartbreakers that come here each month don't notice the 30,000 that are leaving with their hearts broken."

  14. #14
    Senior Member Albershide's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by Bayhem View Post
    Yes, it is possible. But it's not possible for this particular movie.
    I think the audience doesn't know what this movie in particular is before they see it. I thought that many people would be tricked from the trailer to think that this is another Michael Bay movie (Bad Boys style) from the good old days with great cast. Surely it has that vibe from the trailers. And the R rated Bad Boys II made $50 million in its opening weekend. I know that it was a summer movie that is a sequel to a popular movie, but now Michael is much much more popular than he was back in 2002.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bayhem View Post
    R rating or not, that alone is enough to put asses in seats. It's certainly not because of Wahlberg.
    Agree about Wahlberg.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bayhem View Post
    Anyway, "Pain & Gain" did a good job and it's the #1 movie right now. That's what matters. The folks at Paramount were expecting a $20 million opening weekend and that's what they got. A good start for a twisted movie like "Pain & Gain".
    Absolutely, I was just pointing out that I expected more. And with the late international release of the movie I think our early predictions at the start of the thread will be very far from the truth.

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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by Albershide View Post
    I think the audience doesn't know what this movie in particular is before they see it. I thought that many people would be tricked from the trailer to think that this is another Michael Bay movie (Bad Boys style) from the good old days with great cast. Surely it has that vibe from the trailers. And the R rated Bad Boys II made $50 million in its opening weekend. I know that it was a summer movie that is a sequel to a popular movie, but now Michael is much much more popular than he was back in 2002.



    Agree about Wahlberg.



    Absolutely, I was just pointing out that I expected more. And with the late international release of the movie I think our early predictions at the start of the thread will be very far from the truth.
    The ads were misleading, depicting it as a buddy heist movie. That may have contributed to the low CinemaScore from people who were expecting a good time. The film is a dark, bitterly funny character study, about real-life murderers. There's nothing feel-good about it, except the catharsis that comes from tragedy.

    As Bayhem said, Ted was a raunchy, high-concept Summer comedy with a ton of advertising. The last time a low-budget, dark R-rated film became a hit was Black Swan, and it opened limited.

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    Senior Member Albershide's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by dnn View Post
    The ads were misleading, depicting it as a buddy heist movie. That may have contributed to the low CinemaScore from people who were expecting a good time. The film is a dark, bitterly funny character study, about real-life murderers. There's nothing feel-good about it, except the catharsis that comes from tragedy.
    That's right. My point was that the ordinary audience can't know that before they see the actual movie.

  17. #17
    Senior Member Mech_1000's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    I dont see this movie doing so well in the foreign box office... This film doesnt seem like it would be a big Foreign Box Office Hit, definitely more American made. 20M opening weekend could go 2 ways.
    A gradual decrease like many movies see. Week 2 would probably hit 2-3M per day.
    A dramatic decrease like some movies see. 100-300k/weekday and poor weekend sales as the hype wears off.

    Personally I was hoping bay would hit it right with this, because he had so much feeling and determination for this film. Would hate for him to return to TF4 with an "ok lets go cash a paycheck and give fanboys something" sort of feeling.

  18. #18
    Senior Member Bayhem's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by Mech_1000 View Post
    I dont see this movie doing so well in the foreign box office... This film doesnt seem like it would be a big Foreign Box Office Hit....

    No one expects that movie to do "Iron Man 3" business. It's not in 3D, it's not a sequel, it's weird, it's not an action film and overall it's far from the usual crowd-pleasing stuff we see. But it'll attract people in theaters. For example, The Rock is huge in Europe. Pretty much all of his films are doing well out there and "Pain & Gain" will certainly follow that pattern. There's no doubt in my mind.

    And Bay's name helps too.


    Quote Originally Posted by Mech_1000 View Post
    Personally I was hoping bay would hit it right with this, because he had so much feeling and determination for this film.

    If by "hit it right with this" you mean success at the box office then the job's almost done. It's been less than two weeks and as far as the budget in concerned "Pain & Gain" is doing well for itself - over $33 million domestically on a budget of $26 million (not counting the money for marketing: I doubt they spent that much extra cash on the movie so that won't be a problem). Bottom line: "Pain & Gain" will certainly be considered a hit and at this point it's doing better than Bay's last non-"Transformers" movie "The Island", which was shot for $126 million and ended up making only $35 million domestically.
    "You know why the departures and the arrivals at LAX are on separate levels? So the 30,000 heartbreakers that come here each month don't notice the 30,000 that are leaving with their hearts broken."

  19. #19
    Senior Member alexsm's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Around a week ago overseas BO was around $31M. So around $80M Worldwide.

  20. #20
    Senior Member Albershide's Avatar
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    Default Re: Box Office

    Quote Originally Posted by alexsm View Post
    Around a week ago overseas BO was around $31M. So around $80M Worldwide.
    Damn, I was so close.

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