Transformers 4 Gets a Clear Path to the 2014 Box Office Record

[Albershide]

I know, it's too early for any box office predictions but some interesting events happened these days showing that TF4 is getting a pretty good 3 weeks of clear run without any real rivals for the box office crown of 2014. The biggest rival for TF4 was considered to be the sequel of Avatar which first was supposed to be released in 2014. James Cameron's ambitions plan to shoot 3 movies back to back changed this date to 2015. Another direct contender was an unconfirmed Marvel movie which was supposed to be released on the same date as TF4. Today even Deadline confirmed that this movie is indeed Guardians of the Galaxy. But also today Marvel announced that they move the premiere date a whole month after TF4. Let's not forget that Marvel Studios bought back the distribution rights from Paramount for The Avengers and Iron Man 3 and maybe they're just playing nice.

So the first big movie after TF4 is X-Men: First Class sequel 3 weeks after the premiere of TF4. Last year for 3 weeks DOTM had already reached $300 million of it's $350 domestic box office. So it should be enough. And last year Harry Potter was only 2 weeks away from DOTM.
Also we have to look out for How to Train Your Dragon 2 which premieres only a week before TF4 but the audiences for both movies are pretty different so I don't think this will cause any troubles.

So, the only real contenders for the 2014 crown for now are:

Captain America 2 (April 4) - first movie $369 million
Robopocalypse (April 25)
The Amazing Spiderman 2 (May 2) - maybe the biggest contender for the whole year. Just have to wait and see the box office from this month.
Ninja Turtles (May 16)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (May 23) - first movie $482 million
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 20) - first movie $495 million
X-Men: First Class Sequel (July 18) - first movie $354 million
Guardians of the Galaxy (August 1)

You can definitely see that things looks much easier this time. No Harry Potter, no Avatar, no Hobbit, no Batman and no Avengers. Michael just needs to do another great spectacle and this time the box office crown will surely be his.
Actually 2 years before the movie premiere I'm ready to bet that TF4 will be Michael's second box office worldwide winner after 1998's Armageddon. Everything points this way, don't you agree?

[MitP]

Depends on how everyone involved handles TF4. I'm personally hoping it'll avoid the traps that PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES sprung, and I mean a film where the cast and crew are doing more than just lifelessly going through the motions. Part of the movie's appeal will rest with the new human characters, but also more importantly the new robots. (GRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKG RIMLOCK!!)

[Autobot Cruiser]

Depends on how everyone involved handles TF4. I'm personally hoping it'll avoid the traps that PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES sprung, and I mean a film where the cast and crew are doing more than just lifelessly going through the motions. Part of the movie's appeal will rest with the new human characters, but also more importantly the new robots. (GRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKG RIMLOCK!!)

I still belive if they focus more on the TF characters and and work on giving them more screen time and dialoage. Not looking for Dr. Phil moments, but don't want to see good bots go to waste either. (Think Jolt, Dino and Que). These guys had the potential for so much more. Take out the fancy flying spac ships and give more budget to the bots kicking ass.

I know everyone can't be a star, but everyone at least deserves there 15 minutes. Ok, rant over.

[Albershide]

I'm personally hoping it'll avoid the traps that PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES sprung.

Very true but although the situation with TF4 and POTC4 look similar there are many differences. The biggest is that there is no change of the director. Also in terms of box office numbers (the thread's purpose) POTC4 still scored over $1 billion just a step behind DOTM although it was a mess.
Michael said that TF4 is his last TF movie and while many people think this can change I'm absolutely certain that this time it's indeed the end for him. And I think the movie can benefit from this. Just Paramount and Hasbro has to think of a way to promote the movie using something like: "See in theaters Michael Bay's final chapter of the live action TF franchise that he defined" or whatever.

[MitP]

Michael said that TF4 is his last TF movie and while many people think this can change I'm absolutely certain that this time it's indeed the end for him. And I think the movie can benefit from this. Just Paramount and Hasbro has to think of a way to promote the movie using something like: "See in theaters Michael Bay's final chapter of the live action TF franchise that he defined" or whatever.

Well, we already know Michael agreed to do TF4 as part of his PAIN & GAIN deal with Paramount, but I like to think Michael also feels there's more he can still bring to the table. Sure, the money's always great, (I try to be a realist as much as a fanboy), but cold hard cash often seems of secondary importance to Michael, at least in regards to the projects he chooses to direct. No matter what his detractors say, if he didn't have some passion or enthusiasm left for TF4, chances are he wouldn't have signed the dotted line.

I definitely concur this will probably be his final contribution to the TF universe - as it should be.

[Mech_1000]

Probably a year too early to be looking at the release dates of movies for 2014 But it will be nice to not have a HP9 to take the box office.

[Honeykitt]

With the information you have posted I can't help but agree with you. Although things could very well change between now and then I'm going to hope this turns out to be the case. I would love to see Transformers rule to world for awhile box office wise and get more positive critic reviews than bad.

[saberrider]

Anybody that hope to see Grimlock,Dinobots,Unicorn and others combiners or Headmaster just forget it, Michael Bay is going to make TF4 with US165M, I can guarantee there are just few robots and multiple of protoform robots inside only..there just not enough budget to put those Characters we love inside..Why Spiderman,Dark Knight Rises,Pirate of the carribean and Avengers can use budget over 220Million and Transformers so stingy to let fans satisfied with robots and action we wants..so disappoint, initially i can't wait to watch TF4, now just forget it..and i think the boxoffice will be the lowest in TF trilogy

[Bayhem]

Why Spiderman,Dark Knight Rises,Pirate of the carribean and Avengers can use budget over 220Million and Transformers so stingy...

Because the directors of these movies can't handle the budget the way Bay can. Not saying it just because I'm on "michaelbay.com", but Bay is probably the only A-list director who really knows how to handle a budget. People who are concerned about the fact that "Transformers 4" will have a smaller budget are clearly not familiar (no offence) with Bay's work before the "Transformers" trilogy.

He made "Bad Boys" for $12 million (don't trust Wiki) and the final product looks like a $40 million movie. When I saw "Pearl Harbor" for the first time in 2001 I thought that it was a $200+ million movie. Imagine my surprise when I learned that he shot that film for $135 million.

So no worries. He's not a first-time director. He knows what he's doing.

[Universal Kalle]

A smaller budget is a good thing in my book as I'm hoping for a smaller story with just a few core characters.

[Mech_1000]

Plus by now they should have a lot of their core CGI models, so it might be a little cheaper to make the next installment.

[saberrider]

But Mr.Bayhem, for example DOTM,it have 195million budget, 30million use for 3D and only 165Million use for the movie,you can see how many robots and action in the 3rd movies, even the 2nd movie he also increase the budget 200Million (without 3D camera) to put in Devastator,and devastator just show a while then dead already...His previous movies etc like Pearl Harbour use bout 130million for those 35minutes explosions only..and didn't put much CGI like Tranfomers, as people know TF model was quite complicated..Even the Avengers also need 220Million,if Michael really wanna put in Combiners or greater robots inside sure cost a lot, for example people maybe need 300 million to make this and Michael can make it with 250million..that's his style..
As we know DOTM just few robots inside and mostly alien aircraft and protoform soldier that we ignore to see in the movie, i think it cost cheaper cause those cgi for aircraft and protoform soldier not as complicated as the real vehicle transform robots, because every vehicle parts must be shown on their body..Michael Bay is clever to put in those protoform soldier rather than real decepticons in cartoon cause it cost more cheaper you know..If he really need makes climax to the fans he must deliver us the real robots character in cartoons and makes every robots enough screen time and not just only show up for few seconds then die..The production company should know that the fans really need to see more combiners and even headmaster class transformers etc like overlord and zarak inside the future TF movies..bring us the aerial fight and night combat for us, we really need that..if can introduce Aerial Bots in TF4..

[greensmoke]

guys, $ 165m is not some independent film's budget. $ 165m is already GODDAMN HUGE budget.
I think they can surely makes freakin' spectacular movie.

[Bayhem]

If he really need makes climax to the fans he must deliver us the real robots character in cartoons and makes every robots enough screen time and not just only show up for few seconds then die..The production company should know that the fans really need to see more combiners and even headmaster class transformers etc like overlord and zarak inside the future TF movies..bring us the aerial fight and night combat for us, we really need that..if can introduce Aerial Bots in TF4..

Clearly, you have based everything you said about the budget on your own expectations for the movie. And that's a mistake. They don't even have a finished script, yet you're already talking about the robots that will be in the film and its ending. Take it slow. I'm sure they have ideas and they know what to put in the movie.

And no offence but that whole "He must give the fans what they want" thingy is getting really old, really fast. He made three movies already - if you like what you see then good for you, keep enjoying them. But after 5 years you should know what to expect from these movies (together, they all contain a lot of robots) and it's pointless and disrespectful to the crew's work to keep repeating "Give the fans what they want" over and over again.

The way I see it, the man gave you more than enough. For one, he made the "Transformers" brand more popular than ever. And last but not least, these movies are made for the general audience, not exclusively for the fans. People should be aware of that.

[saberrider]

mm..ok..hope so...buddy..

[Albershide]

Well I guess I made this thread too early.
The third and last movie of The Hobbit trilogy is now confirmed for a summer 2014 release. Directly against TF4. There you have your 2014 box office winner. I think there are no doubts about it considering how Return of the King did at the box office and now The Hobbit will be in 3D.
But who gives a shit about box office, right?

[Trailbreaker]

But who gives a shit about box office, right?

You'd be surprised.

[snipperoth]

But who gives a shit about box office, right?

Nicely spoken good sir.

[frolunda71]

The third Hobbit movie will crush TF4 to oblivion! Well, it will be interesting to see if any other movie company's has the guts to release any movies that summer to compete against the Hobbit and TF4...

[Bayhem]

The third Hobbit movie will crush TF4 to oblivion!

They said the same thing in 2007 when the first "Transformers" was up against the almighty "Harry Potter". And what happened? Domestically, "Transformers" made more money and worldwide it made over $700 million, despite "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix". And the movie was not even a sequel. "Dark of the Moon" didn't have Megan Fox and a lot of people said that the movie will lose money because of that. And what happened? It only became the 5th most successful movie of all time. What I'm saying is, don't ever underestimate the "Transformers" brand.

Anyway, I wouldn't worry about "The Hobbit 3". The first one is not even out yet so it's a mistake to treat the third one like it's some sort of machine that will destroy every other movie at the box office. And we're not talking about direct sequels to "The Lord of the Rings" here. It's a new franchise and it remains to be seen how it will perform at the box office.

Either way, one thing's for sure - "Transformers 4" will be a huge hit, no matter the competition.

[Moy]

Yup, too early.

[Crainy]

They said the same thing in 2007 when the first "Transformers" was up against the almighty "Harry Potter". And what happened? Domestically, "Transformers" made more money and worldwide it made over $700 million, despite "Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix". And the movie was not even a sequel. "Dark of the Moon" didn't have Megan Fox and a lot of people said that the movie will lose money because of that. And what happened? It only became the 5th most successful movie of all time. What I'm saying is, don't ever underestimate the "Transformers" brand.

Anyway, I wouldn't worry about "The Hobbit 3". The first one is not even out yet so it's a mistake to treat the third one like it's some sort of machine that will destroy every other movie at the box office. And we're not talking about direct sequels to "The Lord of the Rings" here. It's a new franchise and it remains to be seen how it will perform at the box office.

Either way, one thing's for sure - "Transformers 4" will be a huge hit, no matter the competition.

Exactly. And the whole "5th most successful movie" is a pretty big deal in itself.

[metsuke]

Plus by now they should have a lot of their core CGI models, so it might be a little cheaper to make the next installment.

I just hope not a human based movie with some robots around, like almost happen with the 1st movie... should be the opposite

[Albershide]

Well at least TF4 will have a clear 3 weeks run before The Hobbit 3 release on July 18. And Hobbit will be released on the same day with X-Men First Class sequel which surely will have an impact. And two weeks after The Hobbit is The Guardians of the Galaxy premiere. So the situation is not that bad for TF4 after all. Everything is possible. And I think TF4 will hugely benefit from the fact that it's a re imagining. The franchise could use some fresh air and people will be curious to see it.

[Albershide]

There are some new contenders for the list and some movies that were delayed so here's an update of the movies that could rival TF4 for the box office in 2014.

Robocop (February 7) - very unlikely to be a contender
Captain America: The Winter Soldier (April 4) - first movie $369 million
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2) - first movie $753 million.
Ninja Turtles (May 16) - unlikely a Michael Bay produced movie to beat a Michael Bay directed movie.
Godzilla (May 16) - previous movie $380 million. Could be a contender. Legendary are taking it very seriously and fans so far are liking what they see.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (May 23) - first movie $482 million
Jurassic Park 4 (June 13) - all the movies so far have a decrease interest in them - $915 - $619 - $369 million. Still could be a contender with the duo of Spielberg-Kennedy producing.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 20) - first movie $495 million.
The Hobbit: There and Back Again (July 18) - the biggest contender although the first movie so far didn't make miracles in terms of box office ($832 million so far).
X-Men: Days of Future Past (July 18) - first movie $354 million
Guardians of the Galaxy (August 1) - unpopular Marvel movie that is unlikely to be a contender.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (November 21) - first movie $687 million. That's first part of the final movie so I doubt it'll score much higher than the first film.
Avatar 2 - the release date is still not approved but there's a slight chance for a December 2014 release. If this happens this thread is pointless.

Well if you ask me TF4 and The Hobbit: There and Back Again will end up very close. Still 2014 look like a really interesting year.