Transformers 4 Gets a Clear Path to the 2014 Box Office Record

[Albershide]

I know, it's too early for any box office predictions but some interesting events happened these days showing that TF4 is getting a pretty good 3 weeks of clear run without any real rivals for the box office crown of 2014. The biggest rival for TF4 was considered to be the sequel of Avatar which first was supposed to be released in 2014. James Cameron's ambitions plan to shoot 3 movies back to back changed this date to 2015. Another direct contender was an unconfirmed Marvel movie which was supposed to be released on the same date as TF4. Today even Deadline confirmed that this movie is indeed Guardians of the Galaxy. But also today Marvel announced that they move the premiere date a whole month after TF4. Let's not forget that Marvel Studios bought back the distribution rights from Paramount for The Avengers and Iron Man 3 and maybe they're just playing nice.

So the first big movie after TF4 is X-Men: First Class sequel 3 weeks after the premiere of TF4. Last year for 3 weeks DOTM had already reached $300 million of it's $350 domestic box office. So it should be enough. And last year Harry Potter was only 2 weeks away from DOTM.
Also we have to look out for How to Train Your Dragon 2 which premieres only a week before TF4 but the audiences for both movies are pretty different so I don't think this will cause any troubles.

So, the only real contenders for the 2014 crown for now are:

Captain America 2 (April 4) - first movie $369 million
Robopocalypse (April 25)
The Amazing Spiderman 2 (May 2) - maybe the biggest contender for the whole year. Just have to wait and see the box office from this month.
Ninja Turtles (May 16)
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (May 23) - first movie $482 million
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 20) - first movie $495 million
X-Men: First Class Sequel (July 18) - first movie $354 million
Guardians of the Galaxy (August 1)

You can definitely see that things looks much easier this time. No Harry Potter, no Avatar, no Hobbit, no Batman and no Avengers. Michael just needs to do another great spectacle and this time the box office crown will surely be his.
Actually 2 years before the movie premiere I'm ready to bet that TF4 will be Michael's second box office worldwide winner after 1998's Armageddon. Everything points this way, don't you agree?

[MitP]

Depends on how everyone involved handles TF4. I'm personally hoping it'll avoid the traps that PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES sprung, and I mean a film where the cast and crew are doing more than just lifelessly going through the motions. Part of the movie's appeal will rest with the new human characters, but also more importantly the new robots. (GRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKG RIMLOCK!!)

[Autobot Cruiser]

Depends on how everyone involved handles TF4. I'm personally hoping it'll avoid the traps that PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES sprung, and I mean a film where the cast and crew are doing more than just lifelessly going through the motions. Part of the movie's appeal will rest with the new human characters, but also more importantly the new robots. (GRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKGRIMLOCKG RIMLOCK!!)

I still belive if they focus more on the TF characters and and work on giving them more screen time and dialoage. Not looking for Dr. Phil moments, but don't want to see good bots go to waste either. (Think Jolt, Dino and Que). These guys had the potential for so much more. Take out the fancy flying spac ships and give more budget to the bots kicking ass.

I know everyone can't be a star, but everyone at least deserves there 15 minutes. Ok, rant over.

[Albershide]

I'm personally hoping it'll avoid the traps that PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: ON STRANGER TIDES sprung.

Very true but although the situation with TF4 and POTC4 look similar there are many differences. The biggest is that there is no change of the director. Also in terms of box office numbers (the thread's purpose) POTC4 still scored over $1 billion just a step behind DOTM although it was a mess.
Michael said that TF4 is his last TF movie and while many people think this can change I'm absolutely certain that this time it's indeed the end for him. And I think the movie can benefit from this. Just Paramount and Hasbro has to think of a way to promote the movie using something like: "See in theaters Michael Bay's final chapter of the live action TF franchise that he defined" or whatever.

[MitP]

Michael said that TF4 is his last TF movie and while many people think this can change I'm absolutely certain that this time it's indeed the end for him. And I think the movie can benefit from this. Just Paramount and Hasbro has to think of a way to promote the movie using something like: "See in theaters Michael Bay's final chapter of the live action TF franchise that he defined" or whatever.

Well, we already know Michael agreed to do TF4 as part of his PAIN & GAIN deal with Paramount, but I like to think Michael also feels there's more he can still bring to the table. Sure, the money's always great, (I try to be a realist as much as a fanboy), but cold hard cash often seems of secondary importance to Michael, at least in regards to the projects he chooses to direct. No matter what his detractors say, if he didn't have some passion or enthusiasm left for TF4, chances are he wouldn't have signed the dotted line.

I definitely concur this will probably be his final contribution to the TF universe - as it should be.

[Mech_1000]

Probably a year too early to be looking at the release dates of movies for 2014 But it will be nice to not have a HP9 to take the box office.

[Honeykitt]

With the information you have posted I can't help but agree with you. Although things could very well change between now and then I'm going to hope this turns out to be the case. I would love to see Transformers rule to world for awhile box office wise and get more positive critic reviews than bad.

[saberrider]

Anybody that hope to see Grimlock,Dinobots,Unicorn and others combiners or Headmaster just forget it, Michael Bay is going to make TF4 with US165M, I can guarantee there are just few robots and multiple of protoform robots inside only..there just not enough budget to put those Characters we love inside..Why Spiderman,Dark Knight Rises,Pirate of the carribean and Avengers can use budget over 220Million and Transformers so stingy to let fans satisfied with robots and action we wants..so disappoint, initially i can't wait to watch TF4, now just forget it..and i think the boxoffice will be the lowest in TF trilogy

[Bayhem]

Why Spiderman,Dark Knight Rises,Pirate of the carribean and Avengers can use budget over 220Million and Transformers so stingy...

Because the directors of these movies can't handle the budget the way Bay can. Not saying it just because I'm on "michaelbay.com", but Bay is probably the only A-list director who really knows how to handle a budget. People who are concerned about the fact that "Transformers 4" will have a smaller budget are clearly not familiar (no offence) with Bay's work before the "Transformers" trilogy.

He made "Bad Boys" for $12 million (don't trust Wiki) and the final product looks like a $40 million movie. When I saw "Pearl Harbor" for the first time in 2001 I thought that it was a $200+ million movie. Imagine my surprise when I learned that he shot that film for $135 million.

So no worries. He's not a first-time director. He knows what he's doing.

[Universal Kalle]

A smaller budget is a good thing in my book as I'm hoping for a smaller story with just a few core characters.

[Mech_1000]

Plus by now they should have a lot of their core CGI models, so it might be a little cheaper to make the next installment.

[saberrider]

But Mr.Bayhem, for example DOTM,it have 195million budget, 30million use for 3D and only 165Million use for the movie,you can see how many robots and action in the 3rd movies, even the 2nd movie he also increase the budget 200Million (without 3D camera) to put in Devastator,and devastator just show a while then dead already...His previous movies etc like Pearl Harbour use bout 130million for those 35minutes explosions only..and didn't put much CGI like Tranfomers, as people know TF model was quite complicated..Even the Avengers also need 220Million,if Michael really wanna put in Combiners or greater robots inside sure cost a lot, for example people maybe need 300 million to make this and Michael can make it with 250million..that's his style..
As we know DOTM just few robots inside and mostly alien aircraft and protoform soldier that we ignore to see in the movie, i think it cost cheaper cause those cgi for aircraft and protoform soldier not as complicated as the real vehicle transform robots, because every vehicle parts must be shown on their body..Michael Bay is clever to put in those protoform soldier rather than real decepticons in cartoon cause it cost more cheaper you know..If he really need makes climax to the fans he must deliver us the real robots character in cartoons and makes every robots enough screen time and not just only show up for few seconds then die..The production company should know that the fans really need to see more combiners and even headmaster class transformers etc like overlord and zarak inside the future TF movies..bring us the aerial fight and night combat for us, we really need that..if can introduce Aerial Bots in TF4..

[greensmoke]

guys, $ 165m is not some independent film's budget. $ 165m is already GODDAMN HUGE budget.
I think they can surely makes freakin' spectacular movie.

[Albershide]

There are some new contenders for the list and some movies that were delayed so here's an update of the movies that could rival TF4 for the box office in 2014.

Robocop (February 7) - very unlikely to be a contender
Captain America: The Winter Soldier (April 4) - first movie $369 million
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2) - first movie $753 million.
Ninja Turtles (May 16) - unlikely a Michael Bay produced movie to beat a Michael Bay directed movie.
Godzilla (May 16) - previous movie $380 million. Could be a contender. Legendary are taking it very seriously and fans so far are liking what they see.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (May 23) - first movie $482 million
Jurassic Park 4 (June 13) - all the movies so far have a decrease interest in them - $915 - $619 - $369 million. Still could be a contender with the duo of Spielberg-Kennedy producing.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 20) - first movie $495 million.
The Hobbit: There and Back Again (July 18) - the biggest contender although the first movie so far didn't make miracles in terms of box office ($832 million so far).
X-Men: Days of Future Past (July 18) - first movie $354 million
Guardians of the Galaxy (August 1) - unpopular Marvel movie that is unlikely to be a contender.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (November 21) - first movie $687 million. That's first part of the final movie so I doubt it'll score much higher than the first film.
Avatar 2 - the release date is still not approved but there's a slight chance for a December 2014 release. If this happens this thread is pointless.

Well if you ask me TF4 and The Hobbit: There and Back Again will end up very close. Still 2014 look like a really interesting year.

[Bayhem]

Forget the box office - here's something that will cheer you guys up. Didn't wanna make a whole thread about it so I decided to post it here.

There's nothing better than a good old Guardian hate-article. And the people there really hate Bay's "Transformers". I don't usually post links to these "articles"...but this one is just too good to miss.

I would really like to see Bay's response regarding this gem of an article - http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/filmb...s-giant-robots

[Trailbreaker]

Forget the box office - here's something that will cheer you guys up. Didn't wanna make a whole thread about it so I decided to post it here.

There's nothing better than a good old Guardian hate-article. And the people there really hate Bay's "Transformers". I don't usually post links to these "articles"...but this one is just too good to miss.

I would really like to see Bay's response regarding this gem of an article - http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/filmb...s-giant-robots

There are so many words I can use to describe this article, but "academic" isn't one of them.

Seriously, is there any good article on the net that takes a look at Bay and his works from a perspective that relies purely on analysis and observation rather than emotion and rhetoric?

(Also, other than the fact that Pacific Rim has giant robots, the two movies are completely unrelated.)

[Bayhem]

Seriously, is there any good article on the net that takes a look at Bay and his works from a perspective that relies purely on analysis and observation rather than emotion and rhetoric?

Short answer - no.

These people carefully ignore things like "facts" and "objective analysis" in favor of personal views that they think represent the entire moviegoing public. Their articles are based only on stuff they see on the internet and when they write about Bay they do their best to ignore the fact that all of his films are well received by the general audience. All of them. You want proof: go to CinemaScore or check out the audience meter on RottenTomatoes. Nothing but positive results for all of his films.

Of course, people like the Guardian dude will never, ever, include these statistics in their articles because they'll have nothing else to say. So they basically say "Fuck facts, audiences and numbers, I'll just present my opinion, which is shared by a bunch of fanboys on the web, as the absolute truth".


Pathetic.

[Albershide]

And still more Guardian readers will see TF4 instead of PR. They should ask themselves why.

[Albershide]

Another contender appeared.

Robocop (February 7) - very unlikely to be a contender
Captain America: The Winter Soldier (April 4) - first movie $369 million
The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (May 2) - first movie $753 million.
Ninja Turtles (May 16) - unlikely a Michael Bay produced movie to beat a Michael Bay directed movie.
Godzilla (May 16) - previous movie $380 million. Could be a contender. Legendary are taking it very seriously and fans so far are liking what they see.
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes (May 23) - first movie $482 million
Jurassic Park 4 (June 13) - all the movies so far have a decrease interest in them - $915 - $619 - $369 million. Still could be a contender with the duo of Spielberg-Kennedy producing.
How to Train Your Dragon 2 (June 20) - first movie $495 million.
Transformers 4 (June 27)
The Hobbit: There and Back Again (July 18) - the biggest contender although the first movie so far didn't make miracles in terms of box office ($832 million so far).
X-Men: Days of Future Past (July 18) - first movie $354 million
Guardians of the Galaxy (August 1) - unpopular Marvel movie that is unlikely to be a contender.
Hercules (August 8) - another contender with Dwayne Johnson in the lead. Still Brett Ratner is directing so don't worry.
The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 (November 21) - first movie $687 million. That's first part of the final movie so I doubt it'll score much higher than the first film.

P.S. 2014 is shaping to be even more interesting than 2013.

[Albershide]

Good news. The biggest contender for 2014 The Hobbit 3 has moved it's premiere from July to a December 17 release.